Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 0.003206 0.003518 0.003851 0.004234 0.004661 0.005126 0.005670
2026-01-11 0.002647 0.003078 0.003571 0.004179 0.004911 0.005770 0.006862
2026-01-18 0.002324 0.002809 0.003390 0.004141 0.005095 0.006277 0.007870
2026-01-25 0.002083 0.002595 0.003231 0.004086 0.005218 0.006686 0.008764
2026-02-01 0.001921 0.002457 0.003143 0.004097 0.005409 0.007179 0.009798
2026-02-08 0.001765 0.002309 0.003022 0.004044 0.005496 0.007526 0.010653
2026-02-15 0.001624 0.002165 0.002893 0.003963 0.005528 0.007786 0.011394
2026-02-22 0.001535 0.002085 0.002842 0.003983 0.005700 0.008256 0.012491
2026-03-01 0.001482 0.002051 0.002850 0.004084 0.005995 0.008932 0.013979
2026-03-08 0.001388 0.001949 0.002753 0.004020 0.006028 0.009199 0.014820
2026-03-15 0.001301 0.001852 0.002654 0.003944 0.006034 0.009417 0.015595
2026-03-22 0.001232 0.001777 0.002585 0.003907 0.006096 0.009729 0.016562
2026-03-29 0.001181 0.001730 0.002557 0.003940 0.006288 0.010295 0.018094
2026-04-05 0.001114 0.001654 0.002481 0.003890 0.006335 0.010620 0.019227
2026-04-12 0.001057 0.001589 0.002418 0.003855 0.006405 0.010987 0.020483
2026-04-19 0.001002 0.001524 0.002349 0.003805 0.006440 0.011291 0.021648
2026-04-26 0.000963 0.001483 0.002317 0.003815 0.006584 0.011812 0.023331
2026-05-03 0.000916 0.001426 0.002255 0.003766 0.006615 0.012115 0.024580
2026-05-10 0.000868 0.001365 0.002181 0.003692 0.006589 0.012299 0.025589
2026-05-17 0.000840 0.001335 0.002159 0.003710 0.006743 0.012864 0.027550
2026-05-24 0.000826 0.001328 0.002177 0.003803 0.007051 0.013782 0.030485
2026-05-31 0.000789 0.001279 0.002117 0.003744 0.007047 0.014028 0.031807
2026-06-07 0.000752 0.001229 0.002054 0.003674 0.007015 0.014209 0.032990